Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
